$1 Billion in Government Giveaways

C.A.R.S. is the new program that provides incentives for consumers to trade in their old low MPG vehicles for new higher MPG vehicles. The idea is two-fold. First, the auto industry is suffering in the current economic crisis, and consumers need incentives to shop for new cars. Second, it is environmentally friendly to drive vehicles that use less fuel. Let us examine both of these theses, and then look at how it affects the "common man".

According to The Oregonian, several local dealerships claim to be doing quite well without the rebates, although the C.A.R.S. program has brought in a lot of business in the last few days and probably will continue to do so for the next few months. The fact is that our society in the U.S. is geared toward automobiles. One for the husband, one for the wife, and one for each child of driving age is what the various media throws at us constantly. We will not even touch the "soccer mom" sub-culture at this time.

The real problem with the automobile industry isn't that consumers are not buying vehicles, it's that the manufacturers make too many similar vehicles and expect the consumer to buy, or lease, a new vehicle every year or two. The supply out-stripped demand, and when the economy turned sour, consumers decided to hold onto their vehicles longer than they might have under normal economic conditions. So, yes, large rebates are going to help.

My favorite joke recently has been, "How many Oregonians does it take to screw in a light bulb?" The answer: 100, 1 to screw in the bulb and 99 to measure the environmental impact. Yes, we all need to do our part to help the environment. I caught myself feeling bad because we left our environmentally-friendly, reusable shopping bags at home when we did the grocery shopping last night. I probably shouldn't mention that we then opted for plastic bags that we generally use to throw away disposable diapers.

Anyway, our society makes it far too easy to be environmentally unfriendly and then gives us small ways to feel better about it. For example, the reusable grocery bags, or that our children are obese from drinking too much soda and eating too many pre-packaged meals, but for only pennies a day we can feed starving children in a third-world country. Getting back to the second thesis, driving high MPG cars is better for the environment, but the impact probably isn't is grand as it might sound unless we eliminate the use of fossil fuels and make more of the vehicles recyclable.

What does this have to do with you and me? To start with, unless you bought your gas hog during the SUV frenzy before gas prices got up to $4 a gallon, you probably do not qualify for the rebate. Our 2000 Saturn SL, with 175k miles on it, does not qualify, because when it was manufactured it claimed to have a combined MPG of 27. This does not take into consideration that the MPG calculations were still flawed at that time, or that MPG tends to decrease over time and mileage. Your vehicle has to get less than 18 MPG to qualify. True that the Saturn probably still gets over 20 MPG, but that doesn't help me help the auto industry.

Our 2005 Kia Sedona qualifies for the rebate at a miserable 17 MPG. However, we need a minivan to transport our family, and we still owe nearly 3 years of payments on it. In addition, after searching the website, I could not find any 2010 minivans that would give more than a 3 MPG improvement, and most of them offered less than a 2 MPG improvement. To qualify for the rebate, the improvement must be at least 2 MPG. Is upgrading my fairly new family minivan for a brand new family minivan that gets the same MPG or only slightly better really going to help the environment. That is doubtful, but it would help the banks and the auto industry...and it will make me feel better about using slightly less fuel to get to the grocery store.

If I were Emperor, fuel-efficiency would be a dying term because auto makers would be mandated to provide more options for alternative fuels with each new model year. Also, any rebates would not be based solely on the MPG of the old car, but on the total improvement in getting that car replaced.

What do you think? Are you going to explore whether you qualify for the rebate? Do you think you might buy a new car if you do qualify? Were you considering upgrading to a more environmentally friendly vehicle even without the rebate? Let us know your opinion in the comments.

Perception or Reality

"I cannot admit it," said Sergey Ivanovitch, with his habitual clearness, precision of expression, and elegance of phrase. "I cannot in any case agree with Keiss that my whole conception of the external world has been derived from perceptions.” Leo Tolstoy, Anna Karenina. What Sergey failed to understand is that everyone’s existence is molded by what they experience through their senses. One child sees and hears his mother get beaten every night by his father, and when he grows up he decides to open a shelter for abused women. Another child lives in a similar situation, and when he grows up he decides to be an abusive husband. Similar experiences, different results, both molded by their experiences. They are each reality, but the two children perceived reality differently. The former perceived that abusive behavior is wrong and abused people need a safe place to get help. The latter perceived that abusive behavior was normal and thus continued it.

Believe it, or not, we are not here to talk about abusive spouses and domestic disputes. We are here to talk about how economics is affected by perceptions. Before we continue, let us define some terms.

• To perceive: “To become aware of directly through any of the senses, especially sight or hearing.” American Heritage Dictionary.
• Reality: “The state of things as they are or appear to be, rather than as one might wish them to be” Collins Essential English Dictionary.

Note that the definition given for reality leaves a lot of room for perception but no room for fantasy. This is a very important distinction that I hope you understand, because we do not have space for it here. If you want to discuss it further, post a comment.

Here is a generalized timeline of the current economic crisis based upon my perceptions. American consumers over-extend their credit to the point where most of their paychecks go toward paying debt and the associated bills. This leaves very little for discretionary spending. Money lenders encourage this and find “new and improved” ways for consumers to extend their credit. The house of cards topples over, and the amount of bad debt held by various levels of lenders piles up. As the crisis escalates, the news coverage grows at a feverish pace. Economists of all shapes and sizes talk about how bad everything is going to get and the Stock Market crumbles costing consumers most, if not all, of their retirement accounts. The housing market bites the dust, and consumers stop spending, causing business to fail from lack of sales. This in turn puts hundreds of thousands of people out of work across the country.

We are in the reality of the greatest economic crisis since The Great Depression, and we are having a hard time climbing out of it. Every day a new report comes out about one economic factor or another, and the news services eat it up. Sometimes it seems to be good news, and the Stock Market reacts accordingly. Sometimes it appears to be bad news, and the Stock Market reacts accordingly. Can all of this be stopped? Could the harshness of the recession have been avoided?

If I were Emperor, during an economic crisis the first group of people to be laid off would be the economists. Why can’t we have one day of the month where all of the economic reports come out instead of multiple reports coming out at all different times of the month? The answer to that is simple…it would not be good for the news services. I personally know of people who had good stable jobs that stopped spending their money because they kept being told every day how bad the economy was. Maybe if they had continued to spend their money in their usual patterns, a few people could have held onto their jobs. Maybe if everyone in this situation had continued to spend like normal, then thousands of workers would still be working.

The only way to successfully break out of a recession is through positive economic growth. The only was to accomplish this growth is for consumers to spend money. Once consumers start spending money, then more jobs will be created which will in turn create more consumers to spend more money. However, this will not happen while potential consumers perceive that the economy is shaky. The government can throw money, created by over-extended credit, at the problem, but that will not fix the underlying issue.

We started with a existential discussion, from a work of fiction, dealing with the differences of perception and reality. Then we dove into an example of how different children my deal with abuse to illustrate the differences. Finally, we realized that perceptions about the economy must improve if we want the economy to truly improve. Let us end with an article by CNN on July 2, “Thursday, a new national poll indicated that nearly half of all Americans think the economy has stabilized, but only one in eight think a recovery has started.”

Am I right or wrong? Am I a blubbering idiot, or a Wise One? Let me know in the comments.

Ten Years of Marital Bliss

"There's a bliss beyond all that the minstrel has told, when two, that are link'd in one Heavenly tie, with heart never changing, and brow never cold, love on thro' all ills, and love on till they die." Thomas Moore, Lalla Rookh

Ten years is a long time, and a major milestone. What gets measured in 10 year increments? Decades, modern automobile warranties, high school reunions, census data. It is also one of the important wedding anniversaries. On Friday, June 26, 2009, Kristina and I will have been married for as long as our Kia's powertrain warranty is good for.

And what an incredible ten years. We have three beautiful kids and tons of wonderful memories. Of course, we have some not so wonderful memories as well, but we try not to dwell on those. In the quote above from Thomas Moore, the "all ills" is not referring only to sickness. It refers to the daily battles, trials, and tribulations that all couples face. Siblings, coworkers, and BFFs also go through these illls, but married couples who have committed to spending their lives together have greater and stronger opportunities for hurt. They also have greater and stronger opportunities for bliss when they've worked through the ills and emerged loving on the other side.

"Have ye not read, that he which made them at the beginning made them male and female, And said, For this cause shall a man leave father and mother, and shall cleave to his wife: and they twain shall be one flesh? Wherefore they are no more twain, but one flesh. What therefore God hath joined together, let not man put asunder." Jesus, Matthew 19:4-6

God designed marriage to be a permanent joining, where neither "the party of the first part" nor "the party of the second part" are parts any longer, but are one flesh and one bone. Marriage is a blood contract, but that is for another day.

"And the LORD God said, It is not good that the man should be alone; I will make him an help meet for him." God, Genesis 2:18

I vaguely remember being alone, but that seems now like another lifetime. Most women would attest that men are nearly worthless without a good woman. God knew that too and so He designed a woman for me that would be my "help", my partner, my support, my guide, my sounding-board, my lover.

If I were Emperor, marriage would once again be a sacred union that cannot be entered into or broken lightly. In the modern era, couples try marriage and give up when it isn't working out anymore. Or they marry the one they love and stop loving when the ills begin. People should only get married if they are willing to make a life-long commitment "to have and to hold from this day forward, for better for worse, for richer for poorer, in sickness and in health, to love and to cherish, until we are parted by death."

I love my wife, Kristina, with every ounce of love that is within me. Sometimes it's hard. God knows that we are both stubborn and opinionated and moody and sometimes hard to live with...let alone love. However, I know that Kristina loves me as well. That is why we have lasted ten years. We made a decision to love each other no matter how hard or easy it is.

In celebration of our ten years together, we would like to invite you to a live Internet broadcast/chat. We will broadcast from http://www.justin.tv/aenjel77 on 6/27/09 at 12:00pm PT. If you are a Facebook member, you can join in the chat. If you have MSN and a webcam, you can add Aenjel77 to your friend list and participate in a video chat. We will also have a mini-celebration for Devon at the same time since it will be his 3rd birthday.

We hope to see you there.

To Be Honest, Honesty In Music Is Rare

I came late to the Blogosphere. I've been on the Internet since the BBS days (pre-AOL and CompuServe), but I joined some of the latest trends after they matured. The biggest disadvantage is that everyone is already doing it. The biggest advantage is that I can see what others have done and try to avoid their mistakes or improve upon their success. The key is identity recognition. Therefore, today I begin an "Internet Identity Experiment." Instead of blogging about the economy or health-care reform (both of which I do plan to tackle eventually), I will attempt to start a trend and see where I can take it.

Honestly, most music is not honest. Most singers sing songs by other song writers. This is standard, and is widely recognized. A few song writers are very prolific and have their songs performed by dozens of different artists. How many of these songs are auto-biographical? Not many. Even artists who perform their own songs don't sing honest songs. Most songs that reach the top of the charts are fun or profound or catchy or mysterious or any number of other adjectives, but they are not honest.

For example, "If Today Were Your Last Day" by Nickelback is a very thought provoking song. If the artist knew for a fact that they were going to die tomorrow, and the audience knew it too, then it could be considered an honest song, but it's not. "Please Don't Leave Me" by Pink is touching and catchy, but it's not honest unless the artist has been in a long term relationship, that the audience is well aware of, and this is her attempt to convince him not to leave. I could go on for pages with examples, but I hope you can understand what I mean. Many songs touch us and make us think "I wish my life were like that" or "I feel exactly that way", but few reflect the honesty of the artist.

Enough about what honest songs are not. Let me explain exactly what I mean by an honest song. The song that brought this whole idea to the forefront of my brain is "Lowlife" by Kid Rock. I don't normally listen to Kid Rock, because I think he is a foul-mouthed, lowlife, scumbag. Then I heard this song and thought, "That is exactly what I think of Kid Rock. That is the most honest song I've heard in years." It's like seeing a beggar on a street corner with a sign that reads, "Can you spare a dollar so I can buy some booze?" People walk by and give him money and laugh about how they couldn't NOT give him a dollar because he was so honest about it. In the same way, I cannot help but like the song. Of course, being musically tasteful helps, but you see my point. Yes, I know Kid's version is a remake, but that doesn't matter.

Another example is "Material Girl" by Madonna. Most people considered that song a self-portrait when it came out. This is further evidenced by Madonna still being referred to as "The remarkable, hyper-ambitious Material Girl." She may, or may not, be that way today. I have not followed her career and haven't listened to anything she released since the 80's except "Evita".

One more example for you rockers out there is "Beth" by KISS. This song has since been re-done to the point of mockery, but it still has a strong measure of honesty to it. You know when you listen to the song that the legendary rockers would rather be jammin' and hangin' out then spending time with their girls.

You may argue that all three of these songs are just part of an image, but perception is often viewed as reality, and my perception off all three of these is that they are self-portraits.

Now it's your turn to join the conversation. Share this with your friends, and respond with your own favorite honest songs in the comments. Definitely tweet about it with a link back to here and use the #HonestSongs hash tag. You can use http://tinyurl.com/q7tgug

Today is Tomorrow's Yesterday

In the famous words of The Steve Miller Band, "Time keeps on slippin', slippin', slippin' into the future."

I remember a lot of things I've given up over the years because there just isn't enough time for them anymore. One of them was my domain SchottInTheDark.com. I just couldn't keep up with it. I was thinking today of all the things I wanted to blog about and kept thinking that there isn't enough time. I run through these ideas in my head at various points in the day and make a mental note that it would be a terrific blog topic. Some days I have multiple ideas and try to prioritize, but in the end I give up because I don't have time to really flesh out any of the topics...much less all of them. It was at one of those moments a little while ago that I decided to blog about not having time to do all the things I want to do. In fact, this is free form and may end up in a completely different direction from where it was originally intended.

The biggest issue is that I'm a procrastinator. True, I work well under pressure (that's a classic excuse for a true procrastinator and can help you pick them out), but trying to get everything done at the last minute is incredibly stressfull. Add three kids and a spouse and everything gets done later than the last minute. The Procrastinator's Creed: "Why do today what you can put off until tomorrow?" is a recipe for disaster. To be truly successful at procrastination, you have to train yourself to do some things RIGHT NOW! Then, you have more time later to do the other things you've been putting off. I recognize this in myself and try to work this into my professional life. If someone asks me to do something for them when I have time, I try to tell them I have time right now. Otherwise, they could be waiting for hours or days.

So, going back to my blogging example, I'll come up with a topic and tell myself that I'll have time to work on it tomorrow. Then tomorrow I'll come up with one or more new topics, or just find that I've spent too much time on other things and tell myself that I'll have time to work on it tomorrow. At some point, unless I actually decide it's important enough, I'll give up because I need my time for something else.

It was much easier when I was a kid and when I was in the military. I had "personal assistants" who would schedule my life for me, and my parents were very good at it. To be honest, I would probably be much more of a mess today if it weren't for them scheduling what time I got up, what time I did my homework, what time I did chores, and when I went to bed. Thank you Mom and Dad and Drill Sargent.

Here's the short list of hobbies I've essentially given up because I don't have time for them anymore: bowling, golf, tennis, bike riding, star gazing, wood working, poker, model building, jigsaw puzzles, reading and writing poetry. From time to time, I manage to enjoy a short encounter, but nothing like the relationship we used to have. And some of these items require money or have a prerequisite that may or may not require money.

The second big issue is that my wife is also a procrastinator, but in a completely different way. Actually, she wants everything done RIGHT NOW! and often gets upset if I cannot or will not comply. She often wants me to do several things at the same time RIGHT NOW! and often gets upset if I cannot or will not comply. But then she waits on me. For example, she just asked me when we are going to bed, because she is tired and wants to go to bed RIGHT NOW! No matter how tired she gets, she will continue to wait on me before going to bed. But she's busy doing something while she waits, which gives me an excuse to stay up later so I can get more done. At some point maybe hours later, one of us will get tired of us waiting on each other...usually me...and we will go to bed.

If I were Emperor, I would have the developers of Google Wave devote time and energy into providing me an intelligent calendar application that can learn from me and about me and that can be my personal assistant and not rely on me having to do it all myself because I'll just do it tomorrow. Now I think I'll go to bed, but I hear my wife typing so maybe I can get a few more things done.

Sorry for the Google Wave plug, but I didn't want my blog to be the only one written today that didn't mention it.

Local Fairs, Festivals, and Carnivals

Woohoo! It's time for another festival! Every year, around this time, Keizer has an Iris Festival complete with a fair, a parade, and lots of other festival related activities. This is a big deal for the area, because Schreiner's Iris Garden is in Keizer, and they are a major source of the world's iris'. And who doesn't love a parade, especially one that you can walk to? The Statesman Journal estimated that 20,000 to 30, 000 people attend the parade every year, and I don't doubt that based on the attendance I saw today.

This year the Iris Festival fair is being held at Keizer Station, which is right off of I-5, and has the potential to bring in a lot of business to the area. During the parade, the local Dutch Brothers probably did more business in a few hours than they did all last month, and I'm sure that the local Panda Express, Starbucks, Round Table, Subway, Taco Time, and other merchants are cashing in from the fair.

What I want to know is why tickets are $0.50 and kids rides cost 6 tickets? $3.00 to ride a carnival kid's ride! Well, I do think that it's expensive, but that's not what I have the real problem with. If I were Emperor, the tickets would cost $3.00 and each kid's ride would cost a single ticket. Maybe I'm over simplifying the matter, because an "adult" ride costs 7 tickets which would be $3.50, and maybe there are game booths that cost less than 6 tickets. However, this $0.50 denomination still doesn't work for me.

Junior: "Mom, can I have 12 tickets?"
Mom: "Sorry, sweety, we only have 10 left. See if you can beg 2 off that nice looking man over there on the corner."

I may have misled you into thinking that I didn't care that it's so expensive, but it just wasn't the primary issue. $3.00 to ride a carnival kid's ride? That's highway robbery, especially in the current economy.

Mom: "Junior, do you want a BK kid's meal, or would you rather go on this ride?"
Junior: "Ah, Mom, can't I do both?"
Mom: "Sorry, sweety, not while your dad is out of work and begging on the street corner."

Revised Declaration

If I were Emperor, tickets would cost $1.00 and each ride would cost 1 ticket for kids and 2 tickets for adults. Families that have the money to spend would still spend the same amount but go on more rides. Maybe they would spend more. Families that don't have as much money to spend would end up spending some money and having a little fun instead of giving up on the idea entirely.